cryptohyperliquiddefi
Hyperliquid (HYPE) Bull Thesis
Why HYPE at $32-35 is a buy.
·2 min read·43 views
1. Strength begets strength
- Exchanges have a winner-take-most dynamic. HL has become the dominant venue for on-chain spot and perps.
- flywheel: dominates liquidity -> tighter spreads -> more volume
- Proven execution: Jeff & co has demonstrated elite shipping velocity and quality. + enormous level of community alignment. (= won't rug us)
2. TAM expansion
- We are expecting HL to win as DEX, but to also win market share from centralized players like Binance, Coinbase, Kraken
- User value: HL has CEX speed and liquidity, but w/o custodial risk, trading against users (Binance, MEXC...) and KYC/regulation.
3. HIP-3
- Through HIP-3, HL went from "crypto perps" to "global asset perps"
- Traditional equities: NVDA, Goog
- Private markets: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic
- PMF is immediate, already 400m+ daily vol & 200m+ on OI
4. Revenue + unlocks fud
- 99% of trading fees go token buybacks. Currently this is $1.2B per year.
- Current unlock FUD is overrated (team unlocks beginning on 29th nov)
- I ran the math -> even if we assume full dilution over the next 24 months & no FDV/price increase, we would still be looking at ~$17b market cap (not too high!)
- Current P/E 7.6x
- Fully diluted P/E (24mo out) 14x - still cheap
It is the ONLY crypto asset (besides stables) getting real tradfi attention. I think at $32-35 levels, it's a buy.